The Mid-America Business Conditions Index, which takes in the recent conditions for a nine-state region stretching from Arkansas to North Dakota – including Minnesota –is pointing to healthy growth for the next three to six months.
However, Analyst Ernie Goss of Creighton University said that in the current month, people need to keep an eye on the gap between two and ten year U.S. Treasury bonds. “The ten year is usually always higher than the two year, unless we get into economic trouble,” he explained. “So when that gap is closing it’s usually a warning signal, it’s down to about 50 basis points, or .5 percent.”
He added, “The last time it was this low was back in the recession.”
He said after trade talks, he said the biggest concerns are about both inflation and recession, “We don’t want to see a recession. And inflation, inflation, inflation. We have to watch out for inflation because the Fed will raise interest rates.”
In Minnesota in March, business conditions expanded to a very healthy 61.0 from February’s 57.6. Goss said strong exports were a highlight for Minnesota and are expected to remain strong. Last year Minnesota ranked 23rd in the nation, and first in the nine-state region in terms of the export of goods. He added that exports supported approximately 144,500 jobs, directly and indirectly in the state.